Stop Crying About The EPRDF And Fix Ethiopia's Main Problem – The Opposition

2009/2/3 (Ethiopian calendar)

2016/10/13 (European calendar)

[Note: An Amharic version of this post will appear sometime!]

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Let's decide once and for all: Is the EPRDF a party that represents a majority of Ethiopians? Or is the EPRDF a minority party, dominated by the TPLF, which represents a minority from the state of Tigray, along with some hangers on from other ethnic groups? Which is it?

Before answering, think about the question carefully. If we say that the EPRDF represents a majority of Ethiopians, then why do we claim that there is lack of pluralism and democracy, and that power and resources are controlled by a few? This is a contradiction. We cannot at the same time say that the EPRDF represents a majority and at the same time claim there is no democracy.

How about the second answer – if we answer that yes, the EPRDF is indeed a minority party – a tiny minority party at that? Then we are admitting that we are being ruled and have been ruled by a tiny minority for 25 years. But this again raises a contradiction – a contradiction with the usual opposition (by opposition I mean not only political parties but media, organizations, individuals, etc.) rhetoric. After all a tiny minority cannot rule without the consent of the large majority it's ruling. This is even more the case when the minority rule is primarily ethnic based. It is this consent that keeps the EPRDF in power – absent this consent, the EPRDF would fall. So whose responsibility is it that the EPRDF rules Ethiopia – the minority rulers or the majority consentors? And who is it that can end EPRDF rule? The answer is obvious – it is the majority. Yet opposition rhetoric is solely focused on the evils of the minority EPRDF! This is the contradiction. The problem is with the majority, yet we talk about the minority.

So the fact is that yes, the EPRDF is a minority party, and yes, responsibility for its rule lies fully in the hands of the majority which has agreed to be ruled by it. To put it bluntly, Ethiopia's problems today are not the fault of the EPRDF, but the fault of the Ethiopian people and elites which have enabled the EPRDF's rule. And if we are seeking a solution to the problems, our focus should be on what we can change – the attitudes and abilities of the majority – rather than what we cannot change – the EPRDF.

I understand that this fact, even after 25 years, remains difficult for those of us who oppose the EPRDF to accept, let alone discuss. Only a few have talked about it in the past and a few make mention of it today, if only in passing. And it is precisely because we refuse to address it, instead spending all our ink, time, and airtime on the EPRDF's evils, that the EPRDF still rules.

At this point, let me digress... I am afraid that there are still many who still believe that somehow it is the awesome might, cruelty, and ingenuity of the EPRDF that has led to majority consent. How the might, cruelty, and ingenuity of 6% or even 10% beats 90% is beyond me, but let me remind them of the following brief facts. In all government institutions, members of the TPLF are a small minority. Outside Tigray, almost all the governing is done by non-TPLF members, and even the TPLF 'minders' are few in number. The EPRDF is majority non-TPLF. Even the military and federal police, and this is a fact, is composed of a large majority of non-Tigreans. To put it simply, the ones with the guns are not Tigreans, only the leadership is overwhelmingly TPLF. Note that if only rank and file soldiers decided to stop following orders, the EPRDF would lose power instantly. Even the security apparatus, which we assume has proportionately many more TPLF members, would not be able to do anything once the military ceases to be an EPRDF tool.

A second digression, to address those who are still stuck in the thinking that the opposition elites are weak because of EPRDF oppression. Is the diaspora opposition also weak because of EPRDF oppression?! Are the historical problems with the AAPO/AEUP, Kinijit, Andinet, Medrek, not to mention various Oromo ethno-nationalist groups. because of EPRDF pressure? Everyone knows the answer is no. That opposition elites have been weak for the last 25 years and remain weak is of our own doing. We and only we are responsible, and the solution for the weakness can come only from us.

So I propose that those of us who are really interested in bringing an end to EPRDF rule as it is rather than just venting their anger start spending more of our time, dare I say all our time, focusing on the problem of majority consent to EPRDF rule and what can be done about it.

I understand this is a complicated problem. A lot of issues, not least of which the ethnic divide, have to be frankly discussed. There has to be investment in raising social and political awareness. Given the EPRDF's zero political space policy, this work has to be done in various non-political contexts, in various institutions, and in a clandestine or seamless manner. It's long, slow, and non-glamourous work. It's not as easy as simply heaping blame on the EPRDF and looking for the next protest on which to hang our hopes. But it's the only way to go.

I would like to end with a note of urgency. As many commentators have noted, we have a grassroots uprising today with little coordination and little elite input. Frankly speaking, given the absence of a solid opposition elite, the political situation a few years ago, with the EPRDF in firm control, was far less risky for the country than what we have today. Today, there is a chance that the protests could result in upheaval and anarchy, and this in the absence of a solid opposition elite. The consequences of such anarchy would be terrible. For this reason, I urge all of us to get our act together, focus on the right problem, and work on the solution.